TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Joint vs A. Potapova (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with A. Potapova favoured at 1.12.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Joint | A. Potapova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
24.9% | 75.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
17.0% | 83.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
20.9% | 79.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
15.7% | 84.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Joint | hard | 1725 | 84–53 | 137 |
| A. Potapova | hard | 1713 | 81–83 | 164 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
A. Potapova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | A. Potapova | 2 - 0 |
| W | Y. Starodubtseva | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Grubor | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | W. Osuigwe | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | V. Williams | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | Z. Sonmez | 0 - 1 | June 11, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used