TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Giron vs M. Schoenhaus (Hamburg on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with M. Giron favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Giron | M. Schoenhaus |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
48.9% | 51.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
52.0% | 48.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
36.4% | 63.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.8% | 54.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.0% | 32.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Giron | hard | 1756 | 134–108 | 242 |
| M. Schoenhaus | clay | 1615 | 29–25 | 54 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
M. Schoenhaus leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | M. Schoenhaus | 2 - 1 |
| W | P. Llamas Ruiz | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | C. Hewitt | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | A. Shah | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | F. A. Gomez | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Houkes | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | A. Santamarta Roig | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | L. Djere | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | R. A. Burruchaga | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used