TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Davidovich Fokina vs C. Moutet (Hamburg on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with A. Davidovich Fokina favoured at 1.55.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Davidovich Fokina | C. Moutet |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.7% | 50.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
54.1% | 45.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
51.9% | 48.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
61.2% | 38.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Davidovich Fokina | hard | 1851 | 107–90 | 197 |
| C. Moutet | hard | 1763 | 93–73 | 166 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.
A. Davidovich Fokina leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 18, 2026 | London | grass | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 0 |
| May 18, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 0 |
| July 30, 2025 | Toronto | hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | F. Marozsan | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | J. Brooksby | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 3 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 3 | July 16, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used