TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Dedura vs F. Tiafoe (Hamburg on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with F. Tiafoe favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Dedura | F. Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.7% | 44.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
48.2% | 51.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.4% | 53.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.1% | 49.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
27.1% | 72.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
F. Tiafoe leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 |
| W | D. Recek | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | O. Virtanen | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | G. Onclin | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | I. Marcondes | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | G. I. Justo | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used