TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Majchrzak vs C. Ugo Carabelli (Hamburg on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with C. Ugo Carabelli favoured at 1.65.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Majchrzak | C. Ugo Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
48.7% | 51.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.4% | 44.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
33.8% | 66.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.0% | 54.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
42.5% | 57.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Majchrzak | hard | 1740 | 93–57 | 150 |
| C. Ugo Carabelli | clay | 1796 | 208–111 | 319 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
C. Ugo Carabelli leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 1 |
| L | G. Monfils | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Paul | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Z. Svajda | 3 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Droguet | 2 - 1 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | P. Carreno-Busta | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | M. Topo | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used