TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Giron vs M. Cilic (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with M. Cilic favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Giron | M. Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.5% | 66.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
34.2% | 65.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
33.9% | 66.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
39.6% | 60.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
M. Cilic leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | M. Cilic | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 13, 2020 | Cologne | hard | M. Cilic | 2 - 1 |
| W | P. Llamas Ruiz | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | C. Hewitt | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | A. Shah | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | S. Shimabukuro | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | D. Medvedev | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | D. Medvedev | 2 - 1 | June 13, 2026 |
| W | N. Borges | 1 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used