TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Giron vs J. Choinski (Eastbourne on 2026-06-21) — the market is efficient, with M. Giron favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Giron | J. Choinski |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
76.2% | 23.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
63.3% | 36.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
76.2% | 23.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
75.0% | 25.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Giron | hard | 1756 | 134–108 | 242 |
| J. Choinski | clay | 1806 | 151–83 | 234 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
J. Choinski leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 21, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | J. Choinski | 2 - 1 |
| W | P. Llamas Ruiz | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | C. Hewitt | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | A. Shah | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Mackenzie | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | O. Wallin | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Barrena | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | F. Passaro | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
All June 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used