TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Giron vs B. Shelton (Hamburg on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with B. Shelton favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Giron | B. Shelton |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
32.9% | 67.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
18.1% | 81.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
30.0% | 70.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
27.0% | 73.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.1% | 71.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Giron | hard | 1756 | 134–108 | 242 |
| B. Shelton | hard | 1936 | 144–68 | 212 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
B. Shelton leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 12, 2026 | Stuttgart | grass | B. Shelton | 2 - 1 |
| May 18, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | B. Shelton | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 21, 2023 | ATP Tokyo | hard | B. Shelton | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 15, 2023 | Delray Beach | hard | M. Giron | 2 - 0 |
| W | P. Llamas Ruiz | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | C. Hewitt | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | A. Shah | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | U. Humbert | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Damm | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | O. Virtanen | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used