TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Arnaldi vs R. Collignon (French Open on 2026-05-30) — the market is efficient, with R. Collignon favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Arnaldi | R. Collignon |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
48.6% | 51.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.8% | 54.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
27.4% | 72.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.6% | 59.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.2% | 58.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Arnaldi | clay | 1861 | 133–70 | 203 |
| R. Collignon | clay | 1830 | 136–49 | 185 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 16, 2026.
M. Arnaldi leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Arnaldi | 3 - 2 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Hussey | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | V. Vacherot | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | L. Sonego | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
All May 30, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used