TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Arnaldi vs J. Munar (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with M. Arnaldi favoured at 1.68.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Arnaldi | J. Munar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
57.6% | 42.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.6% | 34.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
17.1% | 82.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.8% | 53.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
56.5% | 43.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Arnaldi | clay | 1861 | 133–70 | 203 |
| J. Munar | clay | 1693 | 115–79 | 194 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 16, 2026.
Level at 3–3 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 7, 2025 | Dallas | hard | J. Munar | 2 - 1 |
| June 10, 2023 | Heilbronn Challenger Men | clay | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 1 |
| April 30, 2023 | ATP Madrid | clay | J. Munar | 2 - 1 |
| April 18, 2023 | ATP Barcelona | clay | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Hussey | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | R. Hijikata | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Stricker | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Lehecka | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Fearnley | 0 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | F. Cerundolo | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used