TennisEdge's AI bot is backing L. Tien (moneyline) at 1.89 in L. Tien vs F. Tiafoe (Cincinnati on 2026-08-18). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Tien | F. Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.7% | 45.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.5% | 34.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.8% | 46.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.7% | 45.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
59.7% | 40.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 7, 2026.
F. Tiafoe leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 19, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 21, 2026 | Delray Beach | hard | L. Tien | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 28, 2023 | ATP US Open | hard | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 0 |
| L | K. Khachanov | 3 - 2 | Sept. 7, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 2 - 3 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | G. Monfils | 0 - 3 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | N. Borges | 0 - 3 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| L | F. Tiafoe | 1 - 2 | Aug. 19, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 1 - 3 | Sept. 11, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 3 - 2 | Sept. 8, 2026 |
| W | D. Medvedev | 0 - 3 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | V. Vacherot | 0 - 3 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | R. Sakamoto | 0 - 3 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
All Aug. 18, 2026 results & picks →