TennisEdge's AI bot is backing L. Tien (moneyline) at 1.89 in L. Tien vs F. Tiafoe (Cincinnati on 2026-08-18). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Tien | F. Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.7% | 45.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.5% | 34.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.8% | 46.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.7% | 45.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
59.7% | 40.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 4, 2026.
F. Tiafoe leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 19, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 21, 2026 | Delray Beach | hard | L. Tien | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 28, 2023 | ATP US Open | hard | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 0 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | D. Vallejo | 1 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 0 - 2 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| W | L. van Assche | 0 - 2 | Oct. 26, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | Oct. 12, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 2 - 1 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | L. Musetti | 2 - 0 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 | Oct. 11, 2026 |
| W | Y. Hanfmann | 0 - 2 | Oct. 9, 2026 |
| L | A. Fils | 2 - 0 | Oct. 2, 2026 |
All Aug. 18, 2026 results & picks →