TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Tagger vs M. Sakkari (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with M. Sakkari favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Tagger | M. Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.4% | 37.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
73.2% | 26.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.3% | 31.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
68.0% | 32.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.1% | 58.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Tagger | clay | 1775 | 51–20 | 71 |
| M. Sakkari | hard | 1846 | 109–78 | 187 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 26, 2026.
M. Sakkari leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | M. Sakkari | 2 - 1 |
| March 7, 2026 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | M. Sakkari | 2 - 0 |
| W | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | S. Bejlek | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Hontama | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | X. Gao | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Korneeva | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Parks | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | P. Kudermetova | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used