TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Stefanini vs J. Ostapenko (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with J. Ostapenko favoured at 1.07.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Stefanini | J. Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
32.9% | 67.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
15.0% | 85.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
61.1% | 38.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
36.3% | 63.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
11.2% | 88.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Stefanini | hard | 1644 | 116–80 | 196 |
| J. Ostapenko | hard | 1767 | 88–73 | 161 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
J. Ostapenko leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. Osorio | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ku | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Akli | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Ruzic | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 1 - 0 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | Z. Sonmez | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used