TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Sonego vs P. Herbert (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with L. Sonego favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Sonego | P. Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.1% | 57.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
34.3% | 65.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.2% | 43.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.2% | 55.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
67.8% | 32.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Sonego | hard | 1746 | 80–88 | 168 |
| P. Herbert | hard | 1650 | 85–71 | 156 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Jan. 22, 2026.
L. Sonego leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | French Open | clay | L. Sonego | 3 - 2 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | J. J. Schwaerzler | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | G. Diallo | 2 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | S. Kopp | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | T. Monteiro | 2 - 1 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | P. Jubb | 0 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Landaluce | 1 - 2 | June 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Alkaya | 0 - 2 | June 7, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used