TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Sonego vs M. Alkaya (Stuttgart on 2026-06-06) — the market is efficient, with L. Sonego favoured at 1.14.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Sonego | M. Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
91.9% | 8.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
87.0% | 13.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
89.4% | 10.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
82.8% | 17.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Jan. 22, 2026.
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | J. J. Schwaerzler | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | G. Diallo | 2 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Sinclair | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. Pavlovic | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Santillan | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | J. P. Ficovich | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | C. Rodesch | 2 - 1 | July 13, 2026 |
All June 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used