TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Castelnuovo vs J. Rodionov (Stuttgart on 2026-06-06) — the market is efficient, with J. Rodionov favoured at 1.12.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Castelnuovo | J. Rodionov |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
10.8% | 89.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
15.5% | 84.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
13.2% | 86.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
17.9% | 82.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Castelnuovo | hard | 1464 | 114–92 | 206 |
| J. Rodionov | hard | 1651 | 134–95 | 229 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 19, 2026.
J. Rodionov leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 6, 2026 | Stuttgart | grass | J. Rodionov | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Vasilev | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| L | A. Ghibaudo | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | M. Basing | 2 - 1 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | W. K. Leong M. | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | G. Ghetu | 0 - 2 | June 28, 2026 |
| L | J. Mackenzie | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | N. McDonald | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | P. Boscardin Dias | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | J. J. Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
All June 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used