TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Sonego vs I. Buse (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with I. Buse favoured at 1.62.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Sonego | I. Buse |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
25.1% | 74.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
22.0% | 78.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
22.9% | 77.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
23.3% | 76.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.3% | 58.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Jan. 22, 2026.
I. Buse leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | I. Buse | 2 - 0 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | J. J. Schwaerzler | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | G. Diallo | 2 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Feldbausch | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | V. Kopriva | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used