TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Siegemund vs S. Bejlek (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with S. Bejlek favoured at 1.56.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Siegemund | S. Bejlek |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
31.9% | 68.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
36.3% | 63.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.7% | 46.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.6% | 59.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
39.2% | 60.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Siegemund | hard | 1715 | 70–62 | 132 |
| S. Bejlek | clay | 1747 | 137–58 | 195 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | S. Bejlek | 2 - 1 |
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | L. Siegemund | 2 - 0 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Anisimova | 0 - 2 | June 10, 2026 |
| W | F. Jones | 2 - 0 | June 9, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | May 26, 2026 |
| W | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | L. Tagger | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Tauson | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used