TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Siegemund vs N. Osaka (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with N. Osaka favoured at 1.22.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Siegemund | N. Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.4% | 49.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.8% | 54.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.8% | 42.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
51.3% | 48.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
22.0% | 78.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Siegemund | hard | 1715 | 70–62 | 132 |
| N. Osaka | hard | 1920 | 80–36 | 116 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
N. Osaka leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Anisimova | 0 - 2 | June 10, 2026 |
| W | F. Jones | 2 - 0 | June 9, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | May 26, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used