TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Jeanjean vs B. Haddad Maia (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with L. Jeanjean favoured at 1.73.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Jeanjean | B. Haddad Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.0% | 38.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
75.5% | 24.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
64.5% | 35.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.3% | 32.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
54.8% | 45.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Jeanjean | clay | 1691 | 111–70 | 181 |
| B. Haddad Maia | hard | 1575 | 109–86 | 195 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 11, 2026.
L. Jeanjean leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | L. Jeanjean | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Frech | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | L. Zhu | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 2 - 0 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | A. Tubello | 2 - 1 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | F. Jones | 1 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| L | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | S. Vickery | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | H. Watson | 2 - 0 | June 7, 2026 |
| L | F. Jones | 2 - 1 | May 24, 2026 |
| L | S. Zhang | 0 - 2 | May 16, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used