TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Darderi vs R. A. Burruchaga (Hamburg on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with L. Darderi favoured at 1.48.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Darderi | R. A. Burruchaga |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
60.1% | 39.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
70.0% | 30.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
64.5% | 35.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.8% | 35.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
64.1% | 35.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Darderi | clay | 1922 | 193–101 | 294 |
| R. A. Burruchaga | clay | 1802 | 200–127 | 327 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 25, 2026.
L. Darderi leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 6, 2023 | Campinas Challenger Men | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 |
| L | D. Svrcina | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Martinez | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | N. Borges | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | S. Wawrinka | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | D. Merida Aguilar | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used