L. Darderi vs D. Sweeny — Prediction & Analysis

US Open · · Sept. 4, 2026 · 15:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing D. Sweeny (moneyline) at 4.14 in L. Darderi vs D. Sweeny (US Open on 2026-09-04). Result: LOST.

Surface hard Odds L. Darderi 1.24 · D. Sweeny 3.20

Bot bet

D. Sweeny (moneyline) @ 4.14 · 0.5u
Result: LOST
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: L. Darderi · D. Sweeny · head-to-head record · US Open

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method L. Darderi D. Sweeny
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
73.7% 26.3%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
72.3% 27.7%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
74.6% 25.4%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
73.1% 26.9%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
72.1% 27.9%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
L. Darderi hard1716 50–4999
D. Sweeny hard1594 225–133358

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 8, 2026.

Head to head

L. Darderi leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Sept. 5, 2026US OpenhardL. Darderi3 - 0
Jan. 11, 2023Australian OpenhardL. Darderi2 - 1

Recent form

L. Darderi

L A. Zverev 3 - 0 Sept. 8, 2026
W D. Sweeny 3 - 0 Sept. 5, 2026
W D. Svrcina 3 - 1 Sept. 3, 2026
W H. Wendelken 3 - 1 Aug. 31, 2026
L B. Van De Zandschulp 2 - 0 Aug. 26, 2026

D. Sweeny

L L. Darderi 3 - 0 Sept. 5, 2026
W L. Musetti 3 - 1 Sept. 3, 2026
W C. Moutet 2 - 0 Sept. 1, 2026
L J. De Jong 2 - 0 Aug. 18, 2026
L C. O'Connell 2 - 1 Aug. 11, 2026

All Sept. 4, 2026 results & picks →

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