TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Ka. Pliskova vs J. Bouzas Maneiro (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with Ka. Pliskova favoured at 1.60.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Ka. Pliskova | J. Bouzas Maneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.4% | 57.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
28.4% | 71.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
62.4% | 37.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.4% | 55.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
59.5% | 40.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka. Pliskova | hard | 1747 | 77–47 | 124 |
| J. Bouzas Maneiro | clay | 1679 | 122–67 | 189 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Ka. Pliskova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | Ka. Pliskova | 2 - 1 |
| W | O. Oliynykova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | I. Swiatek | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Arseneault | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Yastremska | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used