TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Birrell vs J. Pegula (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with J. Pegula favoured at 1.05.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Birrell | J. Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
13.0% | 87.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
13.5% | 86.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
13.2% | 86.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
8.7% | 91.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Birrell | hard | 1773 | 149–98 | 247 |
| J. Pegula | hard | 2077 | 192–73 | 265 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | K. Birrell | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 10, 2025 | Cincinnati | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| L | V. Golubic | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ma | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Korneeva | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | P. Marcinko | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used