TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Paolini vs D. Yastremska (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with D. Yastremska favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Paolini | D. Yastremska |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.1% | 37.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
67.6% | 32.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.9% | 58.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
57.2% | 42.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Paolini | hard | 1867 | 119–80 | 199 |
| D. Yastremska | hard | 1707 | 86–81 | 167 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 22, 2026.
J. Paolini leads 7–1 over 8 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 |
| July 20, 2023 | WTA Palermo | clay | J. Paolini | 2 - 1 |
| May 18, 2023 | Florence | clay | J. Paolini | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 12, 2022 | Cluj-Napoca | clay | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 |
| March 4, 2022 | Lyon | hard | D. Yastremska | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Eala | 2 - 1 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Sakkari | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | V. Golubic | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | R. Montgomery | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Ito | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
| W | A. Dudeney | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | A. Tomljanovic | 2 - 1 | June 12, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used