TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Mensik vs J-L. Struff (Hamburg on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with J. Mensik favoured at 1.38.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Mensik | J-L. Struff |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.7% | 48.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.9% | 34.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
58.8% | 41.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.8% | 31.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Mensik | hard | 1898 | 117–56 | 173 |
| J-L. Struff | hard | 1666 | 77–88 | 165 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
J. Mensik leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | J. Mensik | 2 - 0 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Svajda | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | G. Dimitrov | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Samuel | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | M. Navone | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Sinner | 3 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used