TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Fonseca vs L. Pavlovic (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with J. Fonseca favoured at 1.05.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Fonseca | L. Pavlovic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.3% | 50.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.4% | 42.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
37.6% | 62.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.1% | 51.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
90.0% | 10.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Fonseca | hard | 1954 | 61–22 | 83 |
| L. Pavlovic | clay | 1555 | 129–77 | 206 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 18, 2026.
J. Fonseca leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. Fonseca | 3 - 0 |
| W | C. Moutet | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | N. Kyrgios | 0 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | R. Safiullin | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | J. De Jong | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | V. Gaubas | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | M. Martineau | 1 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | K. Smith | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | M. Alkaya | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | Y. Zhou | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used