TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Fearnley vs J. M. Cerundolo (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with J. M. Cerundolo favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Fearnley | J. M. Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
24.7% | 75.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
26.6% | 73.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
25.6% | 74.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
23.8% | 76.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Fearnley | hard | 1713 | 72–38 | 110 |
| J. M. Cerundolo | clay | 1838 | 205–111 | 316 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
J. M. Cerundolo leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. M. Cerundolo | 3 - 0 |
| W | S. Ofner | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Wolf | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Boyer | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | M. Kecmanovic | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | Z. Kolar | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used