TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Fearnley vs G. Mpetshi Perricard (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with J. Fearnley favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Fearnley | G. Mpetshi Perricard |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.6% | 45.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.7% | 50.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.1% | 47.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
62.5% | 37.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Fearnley | hard | 1713 | 72–38 | 110 |
| G. Mpetshi Perricard | hard | 1695 | 83–72 | 155 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
G. Mpetshi Perricard leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 2 - 1 |
| W | S. Ofner | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Wolf | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Boyer | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | Y. Hanfmann | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | R. Bautista-Agut | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | L. Tien | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | C. Moutet | 1 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Kovacevic | 0 - 2 | June 14, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used