TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. De Jong vs N. Borges (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with N. Borges favoured at 1.73.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. De Jong | N. Borges |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
61.6% | 38.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
63.1% | 36.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.5% | 36.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
62.7% | 37.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
45.2% | 54.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. De Jong | clay | 1752 | 139–88 | 227 |
| N. Borges | hard | 1773 | 128–74 | 202 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
N. Borges leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | N. Borges | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Skatov | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | S. Baez | 0 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | V. Gaubas | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | R. Hijikata | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Kovacevic | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | O. Luz | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | G. Dimitrov | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used