TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Cristian vs B. Haddad Maia (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with J. Cristian favoured at 1.47.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Cristian | B. Haddad Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.0% | 50.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
44.9% | 55.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.0% | 46.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.6% | 50.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
64.7% | 35.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Cristian | hard | 1839 | 72–67 | 139 |
| B. Haddad Maia | hard | 1575 | 109–86 | 195 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 23, 2026.
B. Haddad Maia leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 6, 2023 | WTA Wimbledon | grass | B. Haddad Maia | 2 - 1 |
| L | I. Jovic | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Boulter | 0 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | Q. Zheng | 0 - 2 | June 8, 2026 |
| L | K. Rakhimova | 2 - 1 | May 25, 2026 |
| L | V. Mboko | 2 - 1 | May 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | S. Vickery | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | H. Watson | 2 - 0 | June 7, 2026 |
| L | F. Jones | 2 - 1 | May 24, 2026 |
| L | S. Zhang | 0 - 2 | May 16, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used