TENNISEDGE.GG

I. Buse vs J. Mensik — Prediction & Analysis

Hamburg · ATP Hamburg - 1/8-finals · May 20, 2026 · 10:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in I. Buse vs J. Mensik (Hamburg on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with J. Mensik favoured at 1.44.

Surface clay Odds I. Buse 2.75 · J. Mensik 1.44

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: I. Buse · J. Mensik · head-to-head record · Hamburg

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method I. Buse J. Mensik
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
60.5% 39.5%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
56.5% 43.5%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
57.4% 42.6%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
58.1% 41.9%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
34.4% 65.6%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
I. Buse clay1814 133–81214
J. Mensik hard1898 117–56173

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.

Head to head

I. Buse leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
May 20, 2026HamburgclayI. Buse2 - 0

Recent form

I. Buse

L T. M. Etcheverry 2 - 0 July 23, 2026
W K. Feldbausch 1 - 2 July 22, 2026
W V. Kopriva 1 - 2 July 20, 2026
L S. Tsitsipas 2 - 0 July 14, 2026
L J. Brooksby 3 - 0 July 1, 2026

J. Mensik

L B. Nakashima 2 - 1 July 30, 2026
W T. Svajda 1 - 2 July 28, 2026
L G. Dimitrov 1 - 3 July 2, 2026
W T. Samuel 3 - 2 June 30, 2026
W H. Hurkacz 2 - 1 June 25, 2026

All May 20, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used