TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Auger-Aliassime vs A. Kovacevic (Hamburg on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with F. Auger-Aliassime favoured at 1.11.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Auger-Aliassime | A. Kovacevic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.5% | 30.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
83.2% | 16.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
71.8% | 28.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
74.9% | 25.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
84.4% | 15.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Auger-Aliassime | hard | 1996 | 169–85 | 254 |
| A. Kovacevic | hard | 1669 | 153–121 | 274 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
F. Auger-Aliassime leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | A. Kovacevic | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 2, 2025 | ATP Montpellier | hard | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 14, 2024 | ATP Cincinnati | hard | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 2 - 3 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Prizmic | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 3 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Borges | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Van De Zandschulp | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | F. Cerundolo | 1 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used