TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Davidovich Fokina vs A. De Minaur (Hamburg on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Davidovich Fokina | A. De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
43.8% | 56.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
39.5% | 60.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
64.8% | 35.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.4% | 50.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.0% | 57.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Davidovich Fokina | hard | 1851 | 107–90 | 197 |
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.
A. De Minaur leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 |
| July 27, 2025 | Washington | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 12, 2023 | ATP Toronto | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| June 15, 2022 | London | grass | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | F. Marozsan | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used