TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Ugo Carabelli vs F. Tiafoe (Hamburg on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with F. Tiafoe favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Ugo Carabelli | F. Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.1% | 30.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
63.5% | 36.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.1% | 48.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.2% | 38.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.0% | 57.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ugo Carabelli | clay | 1796 | 208–111 | 319 |
| F. Tiafoe | hard | 1866 | 126–85 | 211 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 20, 2026.
C. Ugo Carabelli leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. Norrie | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Droguet | 2 - 1 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | P. Carreno-Busta | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | M. Topo | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used