TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Vandewinkel vs M. Keys (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with M. Keys favoured at 1.11.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Vandewinkel | M. Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.1% | 59.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
26.3% | 73.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.1% | 57.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
36.2% | 63.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
14.5% | 85.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Vandewinkel | clay | 1593 | 99–62 | 161 |
| M. Keys | hard | 1898 | 91–56 | 147 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 26, 2026.
M. Keys leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Tararudee | 1 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Zakharova | 0 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | H. Tan | 1 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | W. Falkowska | 2 - 1 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | C. Y. Lee | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used