TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Hurkacz vs Y. Hanfmann (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with H. Hurkacz favoured at 1.39.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Hurkacz | Y. Hanfmann |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.0% | 48.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.6% | 42.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
47.3% | 52.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.3% | 47.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Hurkacz | hard | 1777 | 125–81 | 206 |
| Y. Hanfmann | clay | 1810 | 123–82 | 205 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
Y. Hanfmann leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | Y. Hanfmann | 2 - 1 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 2 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | T. Paul | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Ofner | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Mensik | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | B. Bonzi | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | L. Neumayer | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used