TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Parks vs M. Stoiana (Parma on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with A. Parks favoured at 1.47.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Parks | M. Stoiana |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.7% | 55.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
51.0% | 49.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.2% | 46.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.6% | 50.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.0% | 37.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Parks | hard | 1714 | 104–98 | 202 |
| M. Stoiana | hard | 1629 | 61–37 | 98 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
A. Parks leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Parma | clay | A. Parks | 2 - 1 |
| March 31, 2026 | Charleston | clay | A. Parks | 2 - 1 |
| W | V. Jimenez Kasintseva | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | L. Havlickova | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | M. Sakkari | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | M. Hontama | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | V. Grammatikopoulou | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | P. Stearns | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ku | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | J. Pareja | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. S. Rogers | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used