TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Urgesi vs M. Chwalinska (Parma on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with M. Chwalinska favoured at 1.14.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Urgesi | M. Chwalinska |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
24.7% | 75.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
15.6% | 84.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
69.4% | 30.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
36.6% | 63.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
17.2% | 82.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Urgesi | clay | 1527 | 52–61 | 113 |
| M. Chwalinska | clay | 1841 | 113–59 | 172 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
F. Urgesi leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Parma | clay | F. Urgesi | 1 - 0 |
| W | A. Van Impe | 2 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | B. Palicova | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | D. Martynov | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | C. Burel | Walk Over | July 22, 2026 |
| W | E. Yaneva | 2 - 1 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Linette | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | June 6, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 0 - 2 | June 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | June 3, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used