TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Jones vs B. Haddad Maia (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with F. Jones favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Jones | B. Haddad Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.1% | 30.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.5% | 20.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
70.9% | 29.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
73.2% | 26.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Jones | clay | 1786 | 126–51 | 177 |
| B. Haddad Maia | hard | 1575 | 109–86 | 195 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
B. Haddad Maia leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | French Open | clay | F. Jones | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 12, 2021 | W60 Montreux | clay | B. Haddad Maia | 2 - 0 |
| April 4, 2021 | W25 Villa Maria | clay | B. Haddad Maia | 2 - 1 |
| L | K. Quevedo | 1 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Rame | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | L. Ciric Bagaric | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Paquet | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | F. Ferro | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | S. Vickery | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | H. Watson | 2 - 0 | June 7, 2026 |
| L | F. Jones | 2 - 1 | May 24, 2026 |
| L | S. Zhang | 0 - 2 | May 16, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used