TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Cerundolo vs A. De Minaur (Hamburg on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with F. Cerundolo favoured at 1.62.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Cerundolo | A. De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.1% | 29.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
81.8% | 18.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.7% | 39.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
70.9% | 29.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.7% | 41.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Cerundolo | clay | 1861 | 125–69 | 194 |
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 30, 2026.
A. De Minaur leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 |
| March 12, 2025 | ATP Indian Wells | hard | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 18, 2025 | Australian Open | hard | A. De Minaur | 3 - 1 |
| L | A. Gea | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Boyer | 0 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Miguel | 3 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 3 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 1 - 3 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used