TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Auger-Aliassime vs D. Altmaier (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with F. Auger-Aliassime favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Auger-Aliassime | D. Altmaier |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
46.4% | 53.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
40.2% | 59.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
59.6% | 40.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.7% | 51.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
74.6% | 25.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Auger-Aliassime | hard | 1996 | 169–85 | 254 |
| D. Altmaier | clay | 1741 | 128–82 | 210 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
F. Auger-Aliassime leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 |
| Oct. 30, 2025 | Paris | hard | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 1 |
| May 20, 2025 | Hamburg | clay | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 0 |
| April 7, 2025 | Monte Carlo | clay | D. Altmaier | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 10, 2024 | ATP Auckland | hard | D. Altmaier | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 2 - 3 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Prizmic | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 3 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | A. Vukic | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | H. Gaston | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used