TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Spizzirri vs F. Tiafoe (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with F. Tiafoe favoured at 1.10.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Spizzirri | F. Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
30.5% | 69.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
29.1% | 70.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
29.8% | 70.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
13.6% | 86.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Spizzirri | hard | 1825 | 105–54 | 159 |
| F. Tiafoe | hard | 1866 | 126–85 | 211 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Feb. 12, 2026.
F. Tiafoe leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 1 |
| L | F. Tiafoe | 1 - 3 | May 25, 2026 |
| L | J. Pinnington Jones | 2 - 1 | Feb. 12, 2026 |
| W | J. Duckworth | 0 - 2 | Feb. 11, 2026 |
| L | J. Sinner | 1 - 3 | Jan. 24, 2026 |
| W | Y. Wu | 3 - 2 | Jan. 22, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used