TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Jones vs I. Swiatek (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with I. Swiatek favoured at 1.01.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Jones | I. Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
8.3% | 91.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
10.4% | 89.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
9.3% | 90.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
3.4% | 96.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Jones | hard | 1735 | 90–45 | 135 |
| I. Swiatek | hard | 2021 | 184–49 | 233 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
I. Swiatek leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Tararudee | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | V. Lepchenko | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | M. Sawangkaew | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Brengle | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Zhao | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | Ka. Pliskova | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Townsend | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | May 31, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used