TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Cocciaretto vs S. Kraus (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with E. Cocciaretto favoured at 1.62.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Cocciaretto | S. Kraus |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
30.4% | 69.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
19.9% | 80.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
38.8% | 61.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
29.7% | 70.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.7% | 41.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Cocciaretto | clay | 1690 | 94–47 | 141 |
| S. Kraus | clay | 1776 | 175–88 | 263 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 26, 2026.
E. Cocciaretto leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | E. Cocciaretto | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Gibson | 1 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | C. Tauson | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Charaeva | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Semenistaja | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | J. Grabher | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | M. Bassols | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | E. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used