TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Arango vs A. Bondar (Rabat on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with A. Bondar favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Arango | A. Bondar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
25.6% | 74.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
11.9% | 88.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.1% | 58.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
26.2% | 73.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
32.6% | 67.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
A. Bondar leads 4–1 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 13, 2026 | Nottingham | grass | A. Bondar | 2 - 0 |
| May 20, 2026 | Rabat | clay | A. Bondar | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 4, 2025 | Wuhan | hard | E. Arango | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 1, 2024 | Canberra Challenger Women | hard | A. Bondar | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 11, 2021 | W60+H Santiago | clay | A. Bondar | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Boisson | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | T. Zidansek | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | L. Nilsson | 2 - 0 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | A. Gasanova | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinina | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Korpatsch | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | E. Avanesyan | 1 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Charaeva | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | N. Noha Akugue | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Data anomaly in Bondar's recent match history (3 sets recorded in 9 minutes) suggests potential injury retirement or data corruption, rendering the 10% mathematical edge unreliable.