TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Ferro vs J. Bouzas Maneiro (Rabat on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with J. Bouzas Maneiro favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Ferro | J. Bouzas Maneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.5% | 64.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
21.2% | 78.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.0% | 54.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
34.2% | 65.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
38.0% | 62.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Ferro | clay | 1649 | 68–54 | 122 |
| J. Bouzas Maneiro | clay | 1679 | 122–67 | 189 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Rabat | clay | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 1 |
| May 22, 2023 | WTA French Open | clay | F. Ferro | 2 - 1 |
| L | B. Palicova | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | E. Bennemann | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | T. J. Brockmann | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | N. Basiletti | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Sakellaridi | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | A. Arseneault | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Yastremska | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Mathematical edge is negated by significant fatigue discrepancy; Bouzas Maneiro has played double the court time (11h 17m) of Ferro in the last 14 days.