TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Marcinko vs Y. Kotliar (Rabat on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with P. Marcinko favoured at 1.10.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Marcinko | Y. Kotliar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
57.1% | 42.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
75.0% | 25.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
65.0% | 35.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.7% | 34.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
86.2% | 13.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Marcinko | clay | 1727 | 89–46 | 135 |
| Y. Kotliar | clay | 1511 | 71–48 | 119 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 17, 2026.
P. Marcinko leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Rabat | clay | P. Marcinko | 2 - 1 |
| L | T. Zidansek | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | E. Avanesyan | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | N. Podoroska | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | C. Burel | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | S. Kenin | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Ristic | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | D. Spiteri | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Prisacariu | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | A. Mazzola | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Hodzic | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used