TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Shapovalov vs M. Navone (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with M. Navone favoured at 1.47.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Shapovalov | M. Navone |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
25.8% | 74.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
25.4% | 74.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
37.7% | 62.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
29.6% | 70.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
35.5% | 64.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Shapovalov | hard | 1830 | 102–78 | 180 |
| M. Navone | clay | 1815 | 195–108 | 303 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
M. Navone leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | M. Navone | 2 - 0 |
| July 1, 2025 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Navone | 3 - 1 |
| L | A. Gea | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | R. Pacheco Mendez | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | R. Hijikata | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Berrettini | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Travaglia | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used