TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Merida Aguilar vs B. Shelton (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with B. Shelton favoured at 1.27.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Merida Aguilar | B. Shelton |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.7% | 37.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
61.1% | 38.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.9% | 51.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
57.6% | 42.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
25.3% | 74.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Merida Aguilar | clay | 1776 | 166–102 | 268 |
| B. Shelton | hard | 1936 | 144–68 | 212 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
B. Shelton leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | B. Shelton | 3 - 0 |
| L | K. Jacquet | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | R. A. Burruchaga | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | T. Droguet | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | U. Humbert | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Damm | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | O. Virtanen | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used